文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：A probabilistic creep damage model for studying the dispersion of small punch creep test and uniaxial tensile creep test

作者：Huang, Manlin[1];Wu, Jinyuan[1];Wang, Yihan[1];Zhong, Jiru[1];Guan, Kaishu[1];Yu, Bintao[2]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Mech & Power Engn, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[2]China Inst Atom Energy, Beijing 102413, Peoples R China

年份：2026

卷号：222

外文期刊名：INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRESSURE VESSELS AND PIPING

收录：;EI(收录号：20260519994358);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001683345400001)】；

基金：This work was funded by the National MCF Energy R&D Program of China (2022YFE03120000) , the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52130511, 52105146) .

语种：英文

外文关键词：Small punch creep test; Probabilistic creep damage model; Monte Carlo simulation; Creep rupture life

摘要：Creep is a dominant failure mode for high-temperature structural components and is inherently characterized by pronounced scatter. However, creep constitutive models capable of describing probabilistic creep rupture remain limited. In this work, the microvoid growth mechanism and statistical distribution characteristics are incorporated into the creep damage accumulation process, then a probabilistic creep damage model is developed. Combined with a Monte Carlo simulation strategy, the proposed model is applied to investigate the scatter in small punch creep tests (SPCT) and uniaxial tensile creep tests of P91 steel. It is found that the 95 % confidence interval of the rupture life predicted for SPCT agrees closely with the experimentally measured 95 % confidence interval from the European Union Joint Research Centre Materials Database engineering materials database, demonstrating that this model can effectively quantify the uncertainty in SPCT rupture life. In addition, the model successfully reproduces the statistical difference in scatter between the two test types, showing that the 95 % confidence interval width of SPCT rupture life is approximately 1.3 times that of uniaxial tensile creep tests data. The proposed probabilistic creep damage model and the associated simulation methodology provide a new theoretical tool for creep data analysis and life prediction, and are of significant engineering value for ensuring highly reliable service of high-temperature components.