文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models

作者：Feng, Siyu[1];Ren, Hongtao[1,3];Zhou, Wenji[2]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[2]Renmin Univ China, Sch Appl Econ, Beijing 100872, Peoples R China;[3]Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

年份：2023

卷号：6

期号：4

起止页码：450

外文期刊名：GLOBAL ENERGY INTERCONNECTION-CHINA

收录：EI(收录号：20233714702333);WOS:【ESCI(收录号:WOS:001075066300001)】；

基金：This work was supported by Global Energy Interconnection Group Co., Ltd.: Assessment of China's carbon neutrality implementation path and simulation research on policy tool combination (SGGEIG00JYJS2200059).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Long-term energy system optimization models; Uncertain factors; Uncertainty modeling; Hongtao Ren

摘要：A larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution. Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling, incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future energy system planning and resource allocation. This study focusses on long-term energy system optimization model. The important uncertain parameters in the model are analyzed and divided into policy, economic, and technical factors. This study specifically addresses the challenges related to carbon emission reduction and energy transition. It involves collecting and organizing relevant research on uncertainty analysis of long-term energy systems. Various energy system uncertainty modeling methods and their applications from the literature are summarized in this review. Finally, important uncertainty factors and uncertainty modeling methods for long-term energy system modeling are discussed, and future research directions are proposed.