文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中国碳回弹效应的时空格局、动态演进及驱动因素——基于改进的碳排放随机前沿模型的实证考察

英文题名：Spatial-temporal pattern,dynamic evolution,and driving factors of carbon rebound effect in China:Based on improved stochastic frontier model of carbon emission

作者：贾锐宁[1];邵帅[2];杜克锐[3];余燕团[4]

机构：[1]西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710126;[2]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237;[3]厦门大学管理学院,福建厦门361005;[4]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院,广东广州510006

年份：2022

期号：12

起止页码：23

中文期刊名：中国软科学

外文期刊名：China Soft Science

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2021_2022】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2021_2022】；

基金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA084);国家自然科学基金项目(71773075,71922015,72203164)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：回弹效应;碳排放;驱动因素;随机前沿模型;核密度估计

外文关键词：rebound effect;carbon emissions;driving factors;stochastic frontier analysis;kernel density

摘要：在传统碳排放随机前沿(SFA)模型中嵌入回弹效应调整因子,构建基于“一步法”策略的碳回弹效应测算方法,实证考察中国城市碳回弹效应及其驱动因素,并借助核密度估计等方法探究其时空演化特征。研究发现:中国城市碳回弹效应整体处于70%左右的高回弹区间,呈现“东北一家独大、由东至西递减”的空间分布格局;经济增长是碳回弹效应的首要驱动因素,碳排放强度约束政策可以抑制碳回弹效应,但政策效果缺乏持续性;不考虑空间条件时,碳回弹效应具有明显的路径依赖特征,考虑空间条件时,碳回弹效应的空间集聚模式存在极化效应,时间因素的加入会弱化空间相关性并强化极化效应。首次对中国城市层面的碳回弹效应及其驱动因素予以经验考察,有助于通过技术创新和效率改进而推动碳减排的政策有效性,从而为加快实现碳达峰目标和碳中和愿景提供决策参考。
This paper uses a stochastic frontier model combining with an adjustment factor of rebound effect to measure the carbon rebound effect and investigate its driving factors.Furthermore,we adopt the Kernel density to explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon rebound effect.The results are as follows.China’s carbon rebound effect remains at a high level of 70%,and presents a spatial distribution pattern of the largest in northeast and decreasing from east to west.Rapid economic development is the primary driving factor of carbon rebound effect.Carbon intensity constraint policy exerts a significant mitigation effect on the rebound,but the effect is unsustainable.Carbon rebound effect has the obvious characteristics of path-dependence without considering the spatial conditions.When considering the spatial conditions,the spatial agglomeration mode is characterized by the polarization effect,which is strengthened under dynamic conditions.Meanwhile,the spatial correlation decreases gradually over time.We for the first time measure the carbon rebound effect in urban China and empirically investigate its driving factors.It helps to improve the effectiveness of carbon reduction policies through technological innovation and efficiency improvement,providing policy references for achieving the carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization.