文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Investigation of multiple domino scenarios caused by fragments

作者：Sun, Dongliang[1];Jiang, Juncheng[2];Zhang, Mingguang[2];Wang, Zhirong[2];Zhang, Yinian[1];Cai, Liwei[1]

机构：[1]E China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Resources & Environm Engn, State Environm Protect Key Lab Environm Risk Asse, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[2]Nanjing Tech Univ, Coll Safety Sci & Engn, Jiangsu Key Lab Hazardous Chem Safety & Control, Jiangsu Key Lab Urban & Ind Safety, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

年份：2016

卷号：40

起止页码：591

外文期刊名：JOURNAL OF LOSS PREVENTION IN THE PROCESS INDUSTRIES

收录：;EI(收录号：20160902018279);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000373420600061)】；

基金：The financial support of the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (WB1314056), Fundamental Research Funds of East China University of Science and Technology (WB311115), Technology Development Foundation of China Sinopec Qingdao Safety Engineering Institute (313038), Development of System of Quantitative Risk Assessment of Domino Effect in Chemical Industry (B100-81414), the natural science foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK2012824), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51376088, 71001051) are gratefully acknowledged.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Risk assessment; Multiple domino scenarios; Industrial explosion; Fragments

摘要：A model of multiple domino scenarios and the risk of the domino effect, which is a sequential chain escalating from the primary unit to the last unit, is presented in this paper. The trajectories of fragments from all units, the ground distribution of projectiles, and the risk of the sequential chain of the domino effect were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The results showed that the range affected by the fragments from each tank included the other tanks, meaning that fragments from one tank could hit the other tanks and cause multiple accidents, and that the sequential chain of the domino effect could indeed happen. The distributions of ground impacts showed that tank fragments were projected over long distances, up to 1200 m from the source. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy at ground impact for tank fragments was also obtained. Moreover, the magnitudes of the probabilities of the primary, secondary, third, and fourth accidents in the domino chain were respectively about 10(-7),10(-11), 10(-15), and 10(-19). These results showed that for neighboring domino effect units in the same accident chain, the risk of the most recent domino effect was 10(4) times that of the following domino effect. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.