文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Is there a housing bubble in China?

作者：Zhi, Tianhao[1]; Li, Zhongfei[1]; Jiang, Zhiqiang[2]; Wei, Lijian[1]; Sornette, Didier[3]

机构：[1] Business School, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China; [2] Department of Finance, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200237, China; [3] Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, Financial Crisis Observatory, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Scheuchzerstrasse 7, Zurich, CH-8092, Switzerland

年份：2018

外文期刊名：arXiv

收录：EI(收录号：20200035320)

语种：英文

外文关键词：Housing

摘要：There is a growing concern in recent years over the potential formation of bubbles in the Chinese real estate market. This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over nine representative Chinese cities from two aspects. First, we investigate whether the prices had been significantly deviating from economic fundamentals by applying a standard Engle-Granger cointegration test. Second, we apply the Log-Periodic-Power-Law-Singularity (LPPLS) model to detect whether there is any evidence of unsustainable, self-reinforcing speculative behaviours amongst the price series. We propose that, given the heterogeneity that exists amongst cities with different types of bubble signatures, it is vital to conduct bubble diagnostic tests and implement relevant policies toward specific bubble characteristics, rather than enforcing one-that-fits-for-all type policy that does not take into account such heterogeneity. Copyright ? 2018, The Authors. All rights reserved.