文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于动态贝叶斯模型的氢气管道泄漏风险研究

英文题名：Research on the leakage risk of hydrogen pipelines based on dynamic Bayesian model

作者：孙东亮[1];陈诗悦[1]

机构：[1]华东理工大学资源与环境工程学院,上海200237

年份：2022

卷号：22

期号：2

起止页码：901

中文期刊名：安全与环境学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Safety and Environment

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2021_2022】；

基金：上海市自然科学基金项目(16ZR1408500)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：安全工程;动态贝叶斯网络;氢气管道;泄漏风险

外文关键词：safety engineering;dynamic Bayesian model;hydrogen pipe;leakage risk

摘要：为了解决氢气管道风险影响因素多、不确定性大及泄漏风险随时间变化的问题,提出了一种利用动态贝叶斯网络对氢气管道泄漏风险进行动态分析的方法。针对这些特点,利用Bow-Tie模型分析归纳了氢气管道泄漏的主要风险源和不同事故后果。引入时间维度,建立动态贝叶斯网络模型,对氢气管道泄漏进行动态风险分析。结合Leaky Noisy-or gate模型修正并计算条件概率。以化工园区氢气管道为例,验证该动态模型的可行性和实用性,得到管道泄漏概率的时序变化曲线和各事故后果的发生概率。结果表明,管道设备疲劳是导致氢气管道泄漏的最主要因素,设备发生严重疲劳的概率随时间延长而增加。
To solve the problem that the leakage risk of hydrogen pipelines has many dynamic risk factors,uncertainties,and the leakage risk changes with time,this paper proposed a dynamic risk analysis method for the leakage of hydrogen pipelines using a dynamic Bayesian network.Firstly,the Bow-tie model was used to analyze and summarize the main risk sources of hydrogen pipeline leakage and the different consequences of the accident.According to the accident investigation and literature survey,29 risk sources and 9 accident consequences were summarized.Then,by mapping the Bow-tie model above,a dynamic Bayesian network model was established to conduct dynamic risk analysis for hydrogen pipeline leakage.Finally,Combined with the Leaky Noisy-or gate model,the method of determining conditional probability was described.Taking the hydrogen pipeline in the chemical industrial park as an example,the diameter of the pipeline is DN200 and the total length is 4500 m.The feasibility and practicability of the assessment model have been verified by case analysis and calculation.The time-series variation curve of pipeline leakage probability was obtained.The probability of hydrogen pipeline leakage in the initial time slice is 0.38,and the probability of hydrogen pipeline leakage risk fluctuates greatly in the time slice between 0 and 2.The probability of hydrogen pipeline leakage in the second time slice is 0.46,and then the probability decreases.According to the failure probability of the safety barrier and the failure probability of hydrogen pipelines,the occurrence probability of different accident consequences was obtained,and the probability of the most likely accident consequence is 0.127.Through the comparison of posterior probability,it is found that“fatigue of equipment”is the main cause of hydrogen leakage.Therefore,“fatigue of equipment”was taken as the research object,and the fatigue grade was divided into three levels:severe,moderate,and slight.The fatigue failure probability during the service period of the pipeline was calculated.The probability of severe fatigue increases from 0.05 to 0.65 over time,and the probability of slight fatigue decreases from 0.74 to 0.1 over time.