文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：How to Achieve the Synergic Emission Abatement of Volatile Organic Compounds and Carbon Dioxide in China: Historical Decomposition and Prospective Trends

作者：Zhu, Shuicheng[1]; Qiu, Xiaowen[1]; Huang, Beijia[2]; Zhang, Xi[1]; Shao, Shuai[3]; Geng, Yong[4,5]; Fan, Meiting[6]; Zhu, Jinye[1]

机构：[1] School of Business, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, China; [2] School of Environment and Architecture, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, China; [3] School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200237, China; [4] School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China; [5] School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China; [6] School of Urban and Regional Science, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, 200433, China

年份：2024

外文期刊名：SSRN

收录：EI(收录号：20240082978)

语种：英文

外文关键词：Carbon dioxide - Energy Intensity - Energy utilization - Environmental protection - Intelligent systems - Monte Carlo methods - Public policy - Volatile organic compounds

摘要：The synergic reduction of VOCs and CO2 emissions is an important way to achieve sustainable development. This study uses the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to investigate the socio-economic drivers of VOCs and CO2 emissions in China, and explore the synergic effect between VOCs and CO2 emissions. Further, this study conducts the scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to project the future trajectories of VOCs and CO2 emissions under different scenarios. The results show that during 1995-2020, the per capita GDP effect was the dominant contributor to VOCs and CO2 emission increase, followed by population effect. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect played the biggest role in VOCs and CO2 emission decrease, followed by energy structural effect. The synergic effect was obvious in VOCs emission decrease. During 2020-2035, the synergic reduction of both VOCs and CO2 emissions will be realized under lower-emission (LU) scenario, while the trajectories of VOCs and CO2 emissions will show a synergic growth under higher-emission (HU) scenario. The future trends of VOCs and CO2 emissions will show an opposite direction under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Based on such results, several policy implications are proposed, including developing energy-saving technologies, clean energy utilization, eco-friendly way of life, and optimized government management mechanism. ? 2024, The Authors. All rights reserved.