文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Coupled effects of epidemic information and risk awareness on contagion

作者：Xu, Wen-Juan[1]; Zhong, Chen-Yang[2]; Ye, Hui-Fen[3]; Chen, Rong-Da[4]; Qiu, Tian[5]; Ren, Fei[6]; Zhong, Li-Xin[4]

机构：[1] School of Law, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, 310018, China; [2] Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305-4065, United States; [3] School of Accounting, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, 310018, China; [4] School of Finance and Coordinated Innovation Center of Wealth Management and Quantitative Investment, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, 310018, China; [5] School of Information Engineering, Nanchang Hangkong University, Nanchang, 330063, China; [6] School of Business, Research Center for Econophysics, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200237, China

年份：2020

外文期刊名：arXiv

收录：EI(收录号：20200597831)

语种：英文

外文关键词：Disease control

摘要：In modern society, on the one hand, a highly developed transportation system has greatly promoted population mobility, which makes the prevention and control of an epidemic difficult. On the other hand, a highly developed information system has promoted real-time remote communication, which helps people obtain timely and accurate epidemic information and protect themselves from being infected. In order to make best use of the advantages and bypass the disadvantages of modern technologies in the prevention and control of an infectious disease, there is a need to give an insight into the relationship between the spread of an epidemic and people’s risk aversion behaviors. By incorporating delayed epidemic information and self-restricted travel behavior into the SIS model, we have investigated the coupled effects of timely and accurate epidemic information and people’s sensitivity to the epidemic information on contagion. In the population with only local random movement, whether the epidemic information is delayed or not has no effect September 16, 2020 on the spread of the epidemic. People’s high sensitivity to the epidemic information leads to their risk aversion behavior and the spread of the epidemic is suppressed. In the population with only global person-to-person movement, timely and accurate epidemic information helps an individual cut off the connections with the infected in time and the epidemic is brought under control in no time. A delay in the epidemic information leads to an individual’s misjudgment of who has been infected and who has not, which in turn leads to rapid progress and a higher peak of the epidemic. In the population with coexistence of local and global movement, timely and accurate epidemic information and people’s high sensitivity to the epidemic information play an important role in curbing the epidemic. A theoretical analysis indicates that people’s misjudgment caused by the delayed epidemic information leads to a higher encounter probability between the susceptible and the infected and people’s self-restricted travel behavior helps reduce such an encounter probability. A functional relation between the ratio of infected individuals and the susceptible-infected encounter probability has been found. Copyright ? 2020, The Authors. All rights reserved.