文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于智能体的多类新能源汽车市场扩散模型

英文题名：An Agent-Based Diffusion Modeling and Simulation of Multiple Classes of New Energy Vehicles

作者：李英[1];胡剑[1]

机构：[1]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

年份：2014

卷号：23

期号：5

起止页码：711

中文期刊名：系统管理学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Systems & Management

收录：CSTPCD;;CSSCI:【CSSCI2014_2016】；

基金：教育部人文社科基金资助项目(09YJC630069);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071055);国家杰出青年基金资助项目(71125002)

语种：中文

中文关键词：新能源汽车;创新扩散;基于智能体的建模;决策方法

外文关键词：new energy vehicles; innovation diffusion; agent based modeling; alternative fuel vehicle

摘要：随着全球环境问题的不断加剧,新能源汽车将成为汽车发展的重要方向。基于智能体建模方法,构建了多类新能源汽车市场扩散系统的仿真模型,并通过情景分析方法揭示了传统汽车主导、两类新能源汽车共存的情况下,新能源汽车产品的扩散过程。研究结果表明:技术学习率的高低、政府的补贴力度对于新能源汽车的推广起着重要的影响作用,在产品的市场占有率达到一定水平前不应撤销补贴;另外,社会网络因素对纯电动汽车的扩散具有促进作用。
New Energy vehicles have been an important developing area since the global environment problem has become more and more serious. We build a multi-agent simulation model, and based on this model, the diffusion process of two classes of new energy vehicles and the traditional vehicles are analyzed under different scenarios. The results show that technical learning rate and government subsidy policy are critical factors for successful diffusion of new energy vehicles; the subsidy policy may not be stopped until the new energy vehicles achieve certain penetration level. In addition, the social network factor has positive impact on the diffusion of pure electric vehicles.