文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Domino Accidents of Hazardous Chemicals Transportation

作者：Cheng, Jinhua[1];Wang, Bing[1];Cao, Chenxi[1];Lang, Ziqiang[1]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Automat, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China

年份：2023

卷号：11

期号：5

外文期刊名：PROCESSES

收录：;EI(收录号：20241515856176);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000996830900001)】；

基金：This work was supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFB3304701), National Natural Science Foundation of China (62173145, 62173144), the Shanghai Committee of Science and Technology, China (Grant No.22DZ1101500).

语种：英文

外文关键词：QRA; hazardous materials transportation; domino effect; dynamic Bayesian network; FN curve

摘要：In recent years, hazardous materials transportation accidents have received increasing attention. Previous studies have focused on accidents involving a single vehicle. When vehicles loaded with materials gather on a stretch of road, a potential domino accident might cause terrible incidents. This paper prompts a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to estimate the risk of multi-vehicle incidents. The model calculates the possibility of leakage and explosion of hazardous chemicals using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). For different types of hazardous chemicals, the model uses event trees to list different scenarios and analyzes the probability of domino accidents caused by each scenario. The FN-curve and potential loss of life (PLL) are used as an index to evaluate social risk. A case involving multiple vehicles in the JinShan District, Shanghai, is analyzed. The result of the case shows that the state of the driver, the type of road, weather factors and the distance between vehicles have vital impacts on the societal risk resulting from hazardous materials transportation accidents.