文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Evaluating the CO2 emissions implications of hydrogen energy policies in North China based on a dedicated hydrogen planning model

作者：Zhang, Zuhang[1];Zhou, Wenji[1];Hui, Gao[2];Hunt, Julian[3];Zhang, Xiao-Bing[4];Ren, Hongtao[5];Qin, Ping[1]

机构：[1]Renmin Univ China, Sch Appl Econ, Beijing 100872, Peoples R China;[2]Res Inst Econ & Technol CNPC, Beijing, Peoples R China;[3]Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Energy Program & Water Program, Laxenburg, Austria;[4]Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Technol Management & Econ, Copenhagen, Denmark;[5]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai, Peoples R China

年份：2025

卷号：25

期号：8

起止页码：1131

外文期刊名：CLIMATE POLICY

收录：;WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:001381519700001)】；

基金：This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China: [Grant Number 72243007].

语种：英文

外文关键词：Hydrogen energy; hydrogen-supporting policy; MESSAGEix; Northern China; CO2 emissions

摘要：The role of hydrogen is emphasized in many countries' energy and climate strategies, yet the impacts of regional hydrogen-supporting policies remain underexplored. This study analyzes recently announced hydrogen-supporting policies across five provinces in northern China. Four scenarios - Current Policy (CP), Announced Policy (AP), Enhanced Policy (EP), and Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) - are developed and assessed using a dedicated hydrogen planning model, MESSAGEix-H2NC. With cumulative demand of end-use applications expanding 1.3 times compared to CP, the AP scenario's absence of carbon emission constraints leads to a reliance on non-clean hydrogen, resulting in higher carbon emissions than CP. Cost reductions under EP achieve lower emission intensity (11.9 kgCO(2)/kgH(2) by 2030 and 3.6 kgCO(2)/kgH(2) by 2060). Consequently, the investment gap for EP grows from $2.4 billion in 2025 to $89.7 billion in 2060, while the gap for more thorough net-zero emissions (NZE) expands from $10 billion in 2025 to $107 billion in 2060. The investment gap between EP and NZE relative to CP expands over time. Overall, the model results highlight potential deficiencies in current hydrogen development plans and incentive policies in northern China. These findings reveal a misalignment between current policies and CO2 reduction targets and underscore the need for accelerated technological advancements to improve cost competitiveness.