文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：城市更新情境中社会风险演化博弈研究——基于L区旧城改造案例分析

英文题名：Evolutionary Game Research on Social Risks in the Context of Urban Renewal:A Case Study of the Old Town Reconstruction in District L

作者：李琼[1];张子萌[2]

机构：[1]华东理工大学社会与公共管理学院,上海200237;[2]山东大学政治学与公共管理学院,山东青岛266237

年份：2026

卷号：33

期号：2

起止页码：85

中文期刊名：城市发展研究

外文期刊名：Urban Development Studies

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国式现代化进程中可能面临的社会冲突风险及治理路径研究”(编号:23&ZD142);中央高校基本科研业务费专项。

语种：中文

中文关键词：城市更新;社会风险;风险演化;社会网络分析

外文关键词：Urban Renewal;Social Risk;Risk Evolution;Social Network Analysis

摘要：中国城市进入存量发展阶段,房屋征收承载着促进城市功能升级、改善人居环境质量等多重目标。然而,政策执行的复杂性与利益主体的多元诉求催生出多重社会风险,亟需通过剖析风险演化规律以维护社会秩序的稳定。基于对上海市L区旧城改造项目的实证调研,运用社会网络分析方法,深入探讨公众个体风险感知触发博弈行为的演化逻辑机理。研究发现,“实在风险—感知风险—博弈行为”演化网络呈现“纵向跨层渗透—横向同类共振”的复合结构,其中,感知风险作为传导枢纽,助推风险放大,促使个体风险认知转化为行为方案与博弈策略,加剧风险感知的群体极化效应,对社会治理体系形成系统性冲击。因此,应通过制度赋能与过程管控的双重路径实现社会风险治理效能提升。
China's cities have entered the stock development stage,in which housing expropriation carries multiple objectives such as promoting urban functional upgrades and improving the quality of living environments.However,the complexity of policy implementation and the diverse demands of stakeholders have generated multiple social risks,making it imperative to analyze the patterns of risk evolution to maintain social stability.Based on an empirical investigation of an old town reconstruction project in District L of Shanghai,this study employs social network analysis to explore the evolutionary logic and mechanisms through which public individuals'risk perceptions trigger gaming behaviors.The research finds that the evolution network of"actual risk-perceived riskgaming behavior"exhibits a composite structure characterized by"vertical cross-layer infiltration and horizontal homogeneous resonance."Within this structure,perceived risk functions as a transmission hub,amplifying risks and facilitating the transformation of individual risk cognition into behavioral responses and gaming strategies.This process intensifies the group polarization effect of risk perception and poses systematic challenges to social governance systems.Therefore,enhancing the effectiveness of social risk governance should be achieved through dual pathways:institutional empowerment and process control.