文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：流量的陷阱:“草根”意见领袖在线发声与股价操纵——基于雪球论坛的实证检验

英文题名：The Trap of Traffic:Online Voice of“Grassroots”Opinion Leaders and Stock Price Manipulation

作者：熊艳[1];乔居易[1]

机构：[1]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

年份：2026

卷号：44

期号：2

起止页码：128

中文期刊名：系统工程

外文期刊名：Systems Engineering

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(22BGL076);教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(21YJA630101)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：意见领袖;股票收益;论坛发帖;股价操纵

外文关键词：Opinion Leaders;Stock Returns;Forum Posting;Stock Price Manipulation

摘要：在社交媒体时代,流量向意见领袖聚集,为股价操纵提供了便利,这成为损害中小投资者利益的陷阱。本文基于2013-2017年雪球论坛数据,研究“草根”意见领袖是否具备操纵股价的能力及其机制与策略。研究发现,针对上市公司的看涨帖数量越多、情绪越强,短期内股价超额收益显著上升,但随后出现反转,加剧股价暴涨暴跌。其作用机制在于,意见领袖通过帖子传递注意力与情绪,影响非意见领袖群体,形成观点同化与流量吸附效应。值得注意的是,意见领袖并非随机发帖,而是策略性选择业绩差、规模小、股权分散、媒体关注度低的公司,瞄准信息不对称高的目标。同时,文本更长、标点密集、工作日发布的帖子更易获得高流量,凸显内容包装的重要性。本文揭示了“内容即权力”的新型操纵逻辑,为监管舆论操纵、净化网络环境和提升投资者辨识能力提供依据。
In the era of social media,traffic concentration around opinion leaders facilitates stock price manipulation,often at the expense of small and medium investors.Using data from Xueqiu.com(2013-2017),this study examines whether“grassroots”opinion leaders-individuals gaining influence through high-traffic posts-can manipulate stock prices,and explores the mechanisms and strategies involved.The results show that a higher volume of bullish posts with stronger Sen is associated with significantly higher short-term abnormal stock returns,followed by price reversals,thus exacerbating sharp stock price fluctuations.The mechanism lies in the transmission of attention and Sen from opinion leaders to nonleader users,leading to opinion convergence and traffic aggregation.Notably,these leaders strategically target firms with poor performance,small size,dispersed ownership,and low media coverage-those with high information asymmetry.Moreover,longer posts,dense punctuation,and weekday postings are more likely to attract high traffic,highlighting the role of content packaging.This paper reveals a new manipulation logic of“content is power”,providing a basis for regulating public opinion manipulation,purifying the online environment,and improving investors’identification ability.