文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Is there a housing bubble in China?

作者：Zhi, Tianhao[1];Li, Zhongfei[2];Jiang, Zhiqiang[3];Wei, Lijian[2];Sornette, Didier[4,5]

机构：[1]BNU HKBU United Int Coll, Div Sci & Technol, Zhuhai, Peoples R China;[2]Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Business, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;[3]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Finance, Hefei, Anhui, Peoples R China;[4]ETH, Dept Management Technol & Econ, Chair Entrepreneurial Risks, Zurich, Switzerland;[5]ETH, Dept Management Technol & Econ, Financial Crisis Observ, Zurich, Switzerland

年份：2019

卷号：39

起止页码：120

外文期刊名：EMERGING MARKETS REVIEW

收录：;WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000472703500008)】；

基金：This research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. U1811462 & 71721001 & 71231008) Young Academic Mentorship Project of Sun Yat-sen University (No. 14000-31610161), the Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science Fund Project (2017BJB006), and UIC Research Grant (R201905). We deeply appreciate the dedicated RA work by Yunpeng Zhang. We are grateful for the generous comments and suggestions from participants at International Conference on Econophysics (ICE) 2017 Shanghai, Computational Economics and Finance Conference (CEF) 2017 New York, and Artificial Economics Conference (AE) 2017 Tianjin. The usual disclaimer applies.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Housing bubble; Log-period-power-law-singularity; Bubble prediction; Chinese housing market

摘要：This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over 35 representative Chinese cities. We apply the Log-Periodic-Power-Law-Singularity (LPPLS) model to detect whether there is any evidence of unsustainable, self-reinforcing speculative behaviours amongst the price series. We also investigate whether the prices had been significantly deviating from economic fundamentals by applying the E-G cointegration test. Overall, we found that 10 out of the 35 cities being examined had exhibited positive LPPLS signals. We propose that it is vital to conduct bubble diagnostic tests and implement relevant policies toward specific bubble characteristics.