文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：协同抑或挤出:赡养压力对流动人口二孩生育意愿的影响分析

英文题名：Synergy or Crowding out:the Influence of Support Pressure on Second-birth Intention of Migrants

作者：黄秀女[1];郭圣莉[1];张昊[2]

机构：[1]华东理工大学社会与公共管理学院,上海200237;[2]上海财经大学经济学院,上海200433

年份：2018

卷号：38

期号：5

起止页码：30

中文期刊名：现代财经（天津财经大学学报）

外文期刊名：Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2017】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2017_2018】；

基金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(17YJC2H067);中央高校基本科研业务费探索研究基金项目(WE1824005)

语种：中文

中文关键词：赡养压力;二孩生育意愿;协同效应;挤出效应

外文关键词：support pressure; second-birth intention; synergy effect; crowding-out effect

摘要：二孩政策放开后,流动人口的二孩生育意愿远低于预期。现有流动人口的二孩生育意愿研究主要关注于经济成本的影响,忽视了家庭赡养压力可能存在着与生育之间的竞争效应。本文利用卫计委2014年全国流动人口社会融合与心理健康专题调查数据,通过二元选择Logit模型,及OLS和PSM进行稳健性检验的实证结果表明,流动人口的赡养压力带来的挤出效应更为强烈,对二孩生育意愿具有负影响。引入居住类型后发现,老人若与流动人口子女同居可促进二孩生育意愿的提高。据此,本文提出应进一步提高农村老年人的社会保障水平,缓解流动人口家庭赡养压力,改善二孩政策效果,促进这一群体人口结构可持续发展。
After the second child policy is liberalized, the second-birth intention of migrants is far less than expected. The current research on the second-birth intention of the migrants mainly fo- cuses on the impact of economic costs and neglects the possible impacts of family support pressure to compete with raising child. This paper uses Dynamic Survey of the Special Survey on Social In- clusion and Mental Health of the Floating Population in 2014. By using empirical analysis of Logit model and OLS ~ PSM for robust check, this paper finds that the crowding-out effect dominates more intense, and is negative to the second-birth intention. After introducing of the type of living, it shows that elderly people living with migrant children can promote the second-birth intention. Accordingly, this paper proposes that we should further raise the social security level of the elderly in rural areas, ease the support pressure of family for migrants, improve the effect of the second child policy, and promote the sustainable development of floating population structure.