文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Forecasting the crude oil prices with an EMD-ISBM-FNN model

作者：Fang, Tianhui[1];Zheng, Chunling[2];Wang, Donghua[1,3,4]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[2]Jingdezhen Univ, Sch Informat Engn, Jingdezhen 333000, Peoples R China;[3]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Inst Financial Engn, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[4]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, 130 Meilong Rd,POB 114, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China

年份：2023

卷号：263

外文期刊名：ENERGY

收录：;EI(收录号：20224212900089);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000868872700002)】；

基金：Funding This research was supported by National Science Found of China (Grant No. 71171083; Grant No.71771087; Grant No.72171086) .

语种：英文

外文关键词：Crude oil prices forecasting; EMD-ISBM-FNN; Forecasting strategy

摘要：In this paper, an improved slope-based method (ISBM) based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and feed -forward neural network (FNN) method, namely, the EMD-ISBM-FNN method is introduced to decompose and forecast the crude oil prices. Firstly, the ISBM-based EMD method is used to decompose the time series of Brent crude oil prices into several IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) and residuals rn(t). Then IMFs and residuals rn(t) are inputted into the FNN model as input layer neurons, which are trained and integrated by the FNN model to study the relationship between the output values of the FNN and actual values. In order to verify the forecasting results of the EMD-ISBM-FNN model, two research frameworks and three strategies are designed, and the EMD-FNN model and the FNN model as the benchmark models are constructed to compare their forecasting results. The research shows that the EMD-ISBM-FNN model proposed in this paper has the best forecasting effect under the three strategies, and the research framework of this paper is better than the previous scholars' research frameworks, too.