文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：How do China's lockdown and post-COVID-19 stimuli impact carbon emissions and economic output? Retrospective estimates and prospective trajectories

作者：Shao, Shuai[1];Wang, Chang[2,3];Feng, Kuo[4,5];Guo, Yue[6,7,8];Feng, Fan[9];Shan, Yuli[10,11];Meng, Jing[12];Chen, Shiyi[2,13]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[2]Fudan Univ, Sch Econ, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China;[3]Yale Univ, Whitney & Betty MacMillan Ctr Inter Natl & Area S, New Haven, CT 06511 USA;[4]Zhejiang Univ Finance Econ, Sch Econ, Hangzhou 310018, Peoples R China;[5]Zhejiang Univ Finance Econ, Zhejiang Inst Eight Eight Strategies, Hangzhou 310018, Peoples R China;[6]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;[7]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China;[8]Univ Warwick, Warwick Business Sch, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England;[9]Renmin Univ China, Renmin Business Sch, Beijing 100872, Peoples R China;[10]Univ Groningen, Energy & Sustainabil Res Inst tute Groningen, Integrated Res Energy, Environm & Soc IREES, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands;[11]Univ Birmingham, School Geog, Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, England;[12]UCL, Bartlett Sch Sustainable Construct, London WC1E 7HB, England;[13]Anhui Univ, Hefei 230601, Peoples R China

年份：2022

卷号：25

期号：5

外文期刊名：ISCIENCE

收录：;WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000881481200003)】；

基金：We acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 72121002, 71922015, and 71773075), Shanghai Soft Science Research Program (No. 22692103400), and the Fox International Fellowship at Yale University.

语种：英文

摘要：This paper develops a multi-sector and multi-factor structural gravity model that allows an analytical and quantitative decomposition of the emission and output changes into composition and technique effects. We find that the negative production shock of China's containment policy propagates globally via supply chains, with the carbon-intensive sectors experiencing the greatest carbon emission shocks. We further reveal that China's current stimulus package in 2021-2025 is consistent with China's emission intensity-reduction goals for 2025, but further efforts are required to meet China's carbon emissions-peaking target in 2030 and Cancun 2 degrees C goal. Short-term changes in carbon emissions resulting from lockdowns and initial fiscal stimuli in "economic rescue" period have minor long-term effects, whereas the transitional direction of future fiscal stimulus exerts more predominant impact on long-term carbon emissions. The efficiency improvement effects are more important than the sectoral structure effects of the fiscal stimulus in achieving greener economic growth.