文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：美国经常项目与金融市场关系的实证分析

英文题名：An Empirical Analysis on Relationship between Current Account and Financial Market of U.S.

作者：刘钻石[1];张娟[2]

机构：[1]华东理工大学商学院,200237;[2]上海对外贸易学院国际经贸研究所

年份：2010

期号：9

起止页码：96

中文期刊名：国际贸易问题

外文期刊名：Journal of International Trade

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2008】；社科基金资助期刊;CSSCI:【CSSCI2010_2011】；

基金：上海市高校人文社科重点研究基地上海对外贸易学院国际经贸研究所资助

语种：中文

中文关键词：经常项目;金融市场;协整分析

外文关键词：Current account; Financial market; Cointegration analysis

摘要：1992年以来,美国经常项目逆差与GDP的比值持续扩大;金融市场中的汇率、利率、金融深化程度和流动性指标表现出阶段特征。根据国民收入核算模型和境外投资收益模型,可以看出经常项目是国内储蓄与投资差额的反映,汇率与经常项目有正向关系,流动性与经常项目有负向关系,较高的实际利率与经常项目逆差相对应。对美国1975-2005年时间序列数据的实证检验结果表明,经常项目与汇率、利率、金融深化、流动性和财政政策有稳定的协整关系。脉冲响应函数表明,在长期内对美国经常项目有正向冲击效应的是美元贬值、金融创新和扩大流动性;方差分解表明,长期而言,金融创新、汇率和流动性是影响经常项目的重要因素。
From 1992, U.S. current account deficit is broadening. The factors of financial market have episodic characteristic, i.e. exchange rate, interest rate, currency liquidity. According to the national account model and overseas investment model, net saving equals to the balance of current account of the BOP, exchange rate has a positive impact on CA, currency liquidity is adverse, real interest rate always corresponds to CA deficit. Using the U.S. historical data from 1975 to 2005, the empirical study shows that its CA and financial factors have a stable cointegration relation. The impulse response function conclusion is that U.S. dollar devaluation, financial market deepening and currency liquidity increasing have a positive impact on its CA. The variance decomposition result shows that financial market deepening, exchange rate and current liquidity are very important factors to CA in the long run.