文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：电力行业碳达峰及促进全社会碳减排影响分析

英文题名：Analysis of Carbon Peaking in Power Sector and its Impact on Promoting Whole-Society Carbon Emissions Reduction

作者：周原冰[1,2];张士宁[1];侯方心[1];任宏涛[3];徐鹏飞[1]

机构：[1]全球能源互联网集团有限公司,北京100031;[2]全球能源互联网发展合作组织,北京100031;[3]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

年份：2024

卷号：57

期号：9

起止页码：1

中文期刊名：中国电力

外文期刊名：Electric Power

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；CSCD:【CSCD2023_2024】；

基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72140006,72371102)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：电力行业;碳达峰;碳强度;非化石能源发电量占比;电能替代

外文关键词：power sector;carbon peaking;carbon intensity;proportion of non-fossil fuel power generation;electricity substitution

摘要：电力行业碳排放占能源领域碳排放40%以上,是能源领域减排的主战场。在全社会实现2030年前碳达峰背景下,电力行业碳达峰的时间关系着终端各个部门以及全社会碳达峰。首先,分析了已经实现碳达峰国家电力行业与全社会及其他行业碳达峰时间先后关系;其次,理论推导了电力行业碳达峰需要满足的条件以及不同情景下非化石能源发电量占比要求;最后,量化评估了电能替代对终端用能部门和全社会的碳减排影响。研究表明,电力生产碳强度下降率是决定电力行业碳达峰的重要约束条件,在2030年发电量为13万亿kW·h的基准情景下,非化石能源发电量占比需要达到56.3%,意味着2023—2030年每年新增风光装机容量2.4亿kW以上,电力行业可以在2030年实现碳达峰;电能替代促进全社会碳减排受电力生产非化石能源发电量占比影响,只有非化石能源发电量占比超过一定临界值,终端用能部门和全社会才能实现同步碳减排。
The carbon emissions from the power sector account for over 40%of the total carbon emissions in the energy sector,making it the primary battleground for emissions reduction in the energy sector.Against the backdrop of the whole society striving to achieve carbon peaking by 2030,the timing of power sector's carbon peaking is crucial for the end-use sectors and whole-society to achieve carbon peaking.Firstly,an analysis was conducted on the temporal relationship between the power sector's carbon peaking and the carbon peaking of the whole society and other sectors in countries that have already achieved carbon peaking.Secondly,theoretical derivations were made regarding the conditions that the power sector's carbon peaking needs to meet and the proportional requirements of non-fossil fuel power generation under different scenarios.Finally,a quantitative analysis was carried out on the impact of electricity substitution on emissions reduction in the end-use sectors and the whole society.The study indicates that the decline rate of carbon intensity in power production is a crucial constraint determining the power sector's carbon peaking.Under the baseline scenario that power generation reaches 13 TW·h in 2030,the proportion of non-fossil fuel power generation needs to reach 56.3%,which implies that the annual increase in newly installed capacity of wind and solar power should exceed 240 GW from 2023 to 2030 so that the power sector can achieve carbon peaking before 2030.The promotion of electricity substitution for emissions reduction in the whole society is influenced by the proportion of non-fossil fuel power generation in the total power generation.Only when the proportion exceeds a certain critical value can the synchronous emissions reduction in the end-use sectors and the whole society be achieved.