文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：供需数量不确定下可再生能源发电容量投资决策

英文题名：Renewable energy source power capacity investment under uncertain demand and supply

作者：孔令丞[1];李仲[2];梁玲[3];谢家平[4]

机构：[1]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237;[2]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620;[3]上海对外经贸大学会展与旅游学院,上海201620;[4]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,上海200433

年份：2019

卷号：33

期号：2

起止页码：166

中文期刊名：管理工程学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2017】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2019_2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2019_2020】；

基金：国家自科基金面上资助项目(71273091);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71272015)

语种：中文

中文关键词：可再生能源;间歇性能源;容量规划;供给不确定;需求不确定

外文关键词：Renewabel energy source electricity;Intermittent resource;Capacity planning;Supply uncertainty;Demand uncertainty

摘要：间歇性可再生能源供给不仅会影响发电成本,还会影响实际用电需求,因此容量规划的合理与否直接关系到发电商的收益和弃电量。本文针对放松管制下的双边交易模式,通过扩展报童模型将其供给端引入随机性,并同时考虑可再生能源供给不确定和用户需求波动的供需双重不确定情境下,研究发电商对可再生能源电的容量投资最优决策问题。研究发现,在一般形式分布的供需随机性条件下,可再生能源电力容量的最优投资规模会随着装机成本的降低而增大,随着契约电价和缺电损失的增大而增大;而在可再生能源电输出密度服从伯努利分布且用电需求服从均匀分布的情形下,可再生能源电力容量投资规模与可再生能源供给水平以及用电需求水平成正比关系。并且,由于技术进步,当发电商的装机成本达到足够低时,需求的波动越大,可再生能源的装机容量就越大。
Renewable energy source plays an important role in mitigating the contradiction between energy supply and demand and the problem of exhaustion of unrenewable energy source. However, grid-connection of renewable energy source becomes a problem for all countries and areas where developing renewable energy source power since power is not storable. Complete regulations and policies are needed to coordinate the profit of upstream and downstream of renewable energy source power industry chain. This paper reviews common commercial mode and pricing mechanism of renewable energy source power in power market of relaxed regulation and extends newsvendor model by introducing randomness in supply to study the optimal decision on power producer’s renewable energy source power capacity investment. In the process of supplying renewable energy source power producer, both supply and demand fluctuate with time. We first consider optimal capacity investment issue of renewable energy power producer when supply and demand follow general distribution. Analysis shows that when general distribution, and optimal capacity investment decrease as unit construction and operation cost increase and increase as price and power shortage loss increase. We then consider optimal capacity investment issue when renewable energy source power output intensity follows Bernoulli distribution and power demand follows uniform distribution. The result shows that if renewable energy source power output intensity follows Bernoulli distribution and investment cost is above average power generation profit, revenue function of power producer is affected by invested capacity. Larger investment brings a lower power generation profit. At that time, renewable energy source power capacity investment increases as renewable energy power supply and demand levels increase. At last, this paper finds that capacity investment is affected by some key factors such as market power price, renewable energy power output intensity, power plant construction and operation cost and demand function of costumers. If cost is above power producer’s average profit, the optimal decision of power producer does not make any investment. Only If cost is below power producer’s average profit, there exists extreme value in expected revenue function of power producer. Therefore, although capacity investment affects power producer’s revenue function significantly, there is no profit for power profit if cost is not able to controlled to a low level. Besides, since the uncertainty of customer’s demand also affects capacity investment decision, this paper uses uniform distribution to simulate customer’s demand and discusses the relationship between costumer’s demand and capacity investment. Our study helps power producer make reasonable capacity investment decisions when both supply and demand are uncertain.