文献类型：会议论文

英文题名：A Simulation Model of Technological Adoption with an Intelligent Agent

作者：Ma, Tieju[1];Chi, Chunjie[1];Chen, Jun[1];Shi, Yong[2]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[2]Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Fictitious Econ & Data Sci, 100080 Beijing, Peoples R China

会议论文集：20th International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making

会议日期：JUN 21-26, 2009

会议地点：Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Chengdu, PEOPLES R CHINA

主办单位：Univ Elect Sci & Technol China

语种：英文

摘要：Operational optimization models of technology adoptions commonly assume the existence of a social planner who knows a long-term future. Such kind of planner does not exist in reality. This paper introduces a simulation model in which an intelligent agent forms its expectation on future by continuous learning from its previous experience, and adjusts its decision on technology development continuously. Simulations with the model show that with the intelligent agent, an advanced but currently expensive technology will be adopted, but with a much slower pace than in optimization models.