文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：流动转型视角下流动人口城市长期居留意愿研究

英文题名：Long-Term Urban Settlement Intentions of the Migrant Population from the Perspective of Mobility Transition

作者：吴开泽[1];董慧玲[1];王文秀[2]

机构：[1]华东理工大学社会与公共管理学院,上海200237;[2]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241

年份：2026

卷号：55

期号：1

起止页码：167

中文期刊名：陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)

外文期刊名：Journal of Shaanxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国城市住房保障体系变迁与机制优化研究”(24BSH013)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：新生代;流动人口;城市长期居留意愿;流动转型;居住因素

外文关键词：New-generation;Migrant population;Long-Term urban settlement intention;Mobility transition;Housing factors

摘要：随着中国城镇化从快速增长期转向稳定发展期,流动人口发生了深刻的流动转型和大规模的世代转换,流动人口长期稳定居留城市是未来一段时期人口流动转型发展的关键。基于流动转型假说,采用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,考察流动人口在流入地城市长期居留意愿的影响机制。研究发现核心家庭同住及夫妻一方与子女同住、租赁正规住房和拥有产权住房能增强流动人口的长期居留意愿,相对房价对居留意愿产生挤出效应。社会融入是影响长期居留意愿的重要中介机制,核心家庭同住及夫妻一方与子女同住、租赁正规住房和拥有产权住房能够通过增强流动人口的社会融入程度,提升其长期居留意愿,相对房价则通过降低社会融入抑制流动人口长期居留意愿。新生代流动人口更加注重家庭完整性和住房品质等“安居”因素,仅夫妻同住以及单身等家庭非完整性特征对新生代长期居留意愿的抑制作用更强、产权住房对新生代长期居留意愿的促进作用更强,相对房价的驱离效应更大。从流动人口的世代转换和社会需求转变的角度,提出家庭完整性和住房因素主要通过融入机制和预期机制影响流动人口的长期居留意愿,丰富了流动转型的机制研究。
As China enters a phase of stable urbanization following decades of rapid growth,the migrant population has undergone profound mobility transitions alongside large-scale generational turnover.Ensuring long-term and stable urban settlement for the migrant population has therefore become a critical issue in China's ongoing mobility transition.Drawing on the mobility transition hypothesis,this study uses data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey to investigate the mechanisms underlying the migrant population's long-term settlement intentions in destination cities.The results indicate that co-residence in nuclear-family households,co-residence between one parent and children,and residence in formal rental housing or owneroccupied housing significantly strengthen migrants'long-term settlement intentions,whereas higher relative housing prices exert a crowding-out effect.Social integration plays a critical mediating role:both coresidence in nuclear-family households and co-residence between one parent and children,as well as residence in formal rental or owner-occupied housing,enhance migrants'long-term settlement intentions by strengthening social integration,whereas higher relative housing prices suppress settlement intentions by weakening social integration.Furthermore,the new-generation migrants place greater emphasis on family integrity and housing quality in shaping settlement decisions.Among this group,non-intact family arrangements,including spousal co-residence without children and single status,exert a stronger suppressive effect on long-term settlement intentions.By contrast,residence in owner-occupied housing plays a more pronounced facilitating role,while the crowding-out effect of relative housing prices is also stronger among the new-generation migrants.From the perspective of generational turnover and evolving social demands,this study demonstrates that family integrity and housing factors influence migrants'long-term settlement intentions primarily through integration and expectation mechanisms,thereby enriching research on the mechanisms underlying mobility transition.