文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：我国第三产业周期稳定效应与就业吸纳效应研究

英文题名：Research on Effects of Cycle Stability and Employment Absorption of China's Tertiary Industry

作者：马海英[1];王立勇[2]

机构：[1]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237;[2]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081

年份：2009

期号：7

起止页码：144

中文期刊名：中国软科学

外文期刊名：China Soft Science

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2008】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2008_2009】；

语种：中文

中文关键词：第三产业;稳定效应;就业吸纳效应;消费

外文关键词：tertiary industry; stability effect; employment absorption effect; consumption

摘要：本文利用协整理论和HP滤波等计量经济方法研究了我国第三产业消费支出和产值增长对经济增长的稳定效应和第三产业的就业吸纳效应。研究结果表明,我国第三产业消费支出在一定程度上能减少经济波动程度;第三产业产值增长相对比较平稳,在很大程度上缓和了第二产业的剧烈波动对总体经济的影响;第三产业具有相对较高的就业增长弹性,但由于第三产业内部各行业间"异质性"特征突出,所以其就业吸纳弹性差异较大。其中,房地产业、批发和零售贸易餐饮业,、社会服务业、金融保险业和交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业的发展对于行业内部的就业增长具有较大的潜力。
In this paper, we study the stability effects of the growth of China＇ s tertiary industry output value and consuming spending on economic growth by cointegration theory and the HP filter method , we also study employment absorption effect of tertiary sector with the same econometric methods. The results show that consuming spending of tertiary industry can reduce economic fluctuations to some extent, and the output value of tertiary industry grows in a relatively stable rate, in large measure to ease the effect of sharp fluctuations in the secondary industry on the overall economy; The elasticity of employment growth of the tertiary industry is relatively high, but differ from each other seriously among various inter - industry in the tertiary sector as a result of inter - industry ＂heterogeneity＂ characteristics. Among them, the real estate, wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, and social services, finance and insurance and transportation, storage and post and telecommunications industry have greater potentials for employment growth.