文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：盐城市海岸带环境预警体系研究

英文题名：Study on Environment Early Warning System of Coastal Zone in Yancheng

作者：王计平[1];邹欣庆[2]

机构：[1]华东理工大学旅游管理系,上海200237;[2]南京大学海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210093

年份：2009

卷号：21

期号：3

起止页码：19

中文期刊名：环境监测管理与技术

外文期刊名：The Administration and Technique of Environmental Monitoring

收录：CSTPCD

基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40371048);华东理工大学人文社科校内基金资助项目(YZ0127115)

语种：中文

中文关键词：海岸带;环境预警体系;盐城市

外文关键词：Coastal zone; Environmental early warning system; Yancheng

摘要：简述了海岸带环境预警系统的组成,将海岸带环境预警的指标体系分为警情指标和警兆指标两大类,建立了海岸带环境预警指标体系。以盐城市为例,应用时间序列曲线模型对盐城市1995年—2010年的各项预警指标进行了拟合、预测。在此基础上,采用综合指数法,对到2010年的环境发展警情和警度进行了预报。研究结果表明,盐城市海岸带环境多数年份处于中警状态,系统指数处于比较严重的状态。
Systematical constitution of coastal early-arning system was discussed and the warning index system was divided into warning situation and warning sign according to direct and direct methods. The indexes were simulated and predicted by time series curve model using data of Yancheng coastal zone environment during the period of 1995 to 2006. The warning situation and warning sign were forecasted for 2010 by synthetic index method. The results showed that the Yancheng coastal zone environment in most years from now on would be under middle-warning situation and the index would be under heavy warning.