文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Decoupling Economic Growth from Carbon Emissions for Sustainable Development: An EKC Analysis of Regional Heterogeneity Across Five Chinese Urban Agglomerations

作者：Wang, Jun[1];Sun, Yizhen[1];Xu, Su[1]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Art Design & Media, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China

年份：2026

卷号：18

期号：14

外文期刊名：SUSTAINABILITY

收录：;WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:001833565900001)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001833565900001)】；

基金：This research was funded by the Humanities and Social Sciences Research Project of the Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China (number 25YJA630075), "Institutional Pathways to Urban Carbon Peaking in China: Standard-Setting, Dynamic Assessment, and Collaborative Governance Research".

语种：英文

外文关键词：sustainable development; low-carbon transition; environmental Kuznets curve; Tapio decoupling model; urban agglomeration; regional heterogeneity

摘要：Decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions is central to the sustainable development of rapidly urbanizing economies, and urban agglomerations are the pivotal spatial units for delivering this transition under China's dual-carbon goals, yet systematic cross-agglomeration comparisons that could inform differentiated sustainability policy remain scarce. Using panel data for 107 prefecture-level cities in five agglomerations-the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Pearl River Delta (PRD), Chengdu-Chongqing (CY), and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MRYR)-across five benchmark years spanning 2005-2023, we combined a two-way fixed-effects environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model, the Tapio decoupling model, and cross-sectional quadrant analysis to examine the growth-emission relationship in shape, decoupling dynamics, and spatial structure. All five agglomerations traced an inverted-U trajectory, with turning-point per capita gross domestic product (GDP) rising in the order CY < PRD < BTH < MRYR < YRD. Once fixed effects and structural controls were added, most quadratic terms became insignificant and reversed sign after the secondary-industry share and carbon intensity entered; only the PRD and BTH retained a significant nonlinear form. The net income effect is therefore largely monotonic, with the inverted U carried by industrial upgrading and energy-efficiency gains. Tapio decoupling followed a non-monotonic "improve-then-regress" path, with expansive negative decoupling re-emerging across all agglomerations during 2020-2023. Spatially, high-value clustering persisted in the YRD, weakened in the BTH after 2020, and concentrated on single cores in Chengdu and Wuhan. We accordingly propose sustainability-oriented low-carbon pathways differentiated jointly by agglomeration and quadrant. By showing that decoupling is stage-dependent and reversible rather than an automatic by-product of income growth, our findings indicate that durable progress toward regional sustainability hinges on structural transformation and coordinated governance tailored to each agglomeration's stage of development.