文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：System dynamics modelling for improving urban resilience in Beijing, China

作者：Li, Guijun[1,2];Kou, Chenhuan[1,2];Wang, Yongsheng[1];Yang, Hongtao[3]

机构：[1]Cent Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Management Sci & Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China;[2]Cent Univ Finance & Econ, Ctr Global Econ & Sustainable Dev CGESD, Beijing, Peoples R China;[3]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai, Peoples R China

年份：2020

卷号：161

外文期刊名：RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING

收录：;EI(收录号：20202408801896);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000569610400049)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000569610400049)】；

基金：This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 71473285]; the Philosophy and social science planning project of Heilongjiang Province [grant number 19GLC165], and the Graduate Research and Innovation Fund Project of Central University of Finance and Economics [grant number 201715].

语种：英文

外文关键词：Urban resilience; System Dynamics; Policy simulation

摘要：Resilience building has become increasingly important in the field of urban complexity and sustainable governance. For a better understanding of the adaptive capacity of an urban system, this paper integrated four types of sub-resilience across different domains into the comprehensive urban resilience. Then, a system dynamics (SD) model was established to clarify the causal feedback and dynamic interaction mechanism between the components of urban resilience. Taken the megacity of Beijing as the case, the improvement process of urban resilience was simulated by 2025, and four policy scenarios were set to improve the urban resilience effectively by adjusting endogenous variables. The results showed that the growth of urban resilience would undergo three periods: fast growth exceeded 10% in first two years, while slowed down afterwards in following five years, and finally increased again in the future. The sub-resilience that dominates the urban resilience growth changed from the material and energy resilience to the governance resilience, and then to the socioeconomic resilience. Scenarios analysis indicated that all subsystems were sensitive to the policy adjustment except for the socioeconomic component. The purpose of this paper is to build a comprehensive and informative resilience development tool for urban managers and planners to maintain the desired status of city operation, as well as respond positively to resilience crisis that might occur in the near future.