文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于GRA的优选组合技术在中长期负荷预测中的应用

英文题名：GRA Based Optimal Combined Technique for Mid/Long Term Load Forecasting

作者：朱伟华[1];常虹[2]

机构：[1]吉林电子信息职业技术学院,吉林吉林132021;[2]华东理工大学化工过程先进控制和优化技术教育部重点实验室,上海200237

年份：2013

卷号：32

期号：1

起止页码：213

中文期刊名：煤炭技术

外文期刊名：Coal Technology

收录：北大核心:【北大核心2011】；

语种：中文

中文关键词：灰色关联;优选组合;中;长期负荷预测;权值

外文关键词：gray relational;optimal combined; Mid- Long term load forecasting;weight value

摘要：提出基于灰色关联(GRA)的优选组合预测模型,该模型组合各单独模型的预测信息,能够有效的提高预测精度。优选组合预测技术关键在于求出各种预测方法的权值系数,文章引入灰色关联(GRA)方法来确定不同预测模型的权值问题。将预测问题系统看作一个特定系统,根据原始数据相应计算不同模型的灰色关联系数,作为该模型对应的权值,进而得到组合预测结果。预测结果表明组合该预测模型精度较好。
Mid/long term forecasting is useful for fuel Supplies, maintenance operations and planning op- erations. A good single model may not be ideal when the power industry and the power network have de- veloped into an advanced stage. In practical applications, engineers often try several kinds of model. The resuh of each forecasting model is compared and analysis has to be done by experienced forecasters to get the better forecasting result. In this paper, in order to fully utilize the useful information from the models, a novel combined forecasting method based on grey relational analysis （GRA） is proposed. The combined forecasting method can combined separate method and integrate merits of each model to provide a more accurate result. The result shows better forecasting performance.