文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Dynamic environmental risk assessment of hazardous chemicals accidents

作者：Li, Shuxia[1]; Liu, Liping[1]; Fan, Tijun[1]

机构：[1] School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Research Center for Virtual Business, China

年份：2012

卷号：4

期号：19

起止页码：345

外文期刊名：Advances in Information Sciences and Service Sciences

收录：EI(收录号：20124515657124)

语种：英文

外文关键词：Computer simulation - Decision support systems - Environmental management - Hazardous materials - Risk assessment - Uncertainty analysis

摘要：Once hazardous chemicals accidents occur, the damage to the society is often enormous, as well as the threat to our living environment. Environmental risk and its dynamic evolution process should be scientifically assessed and predicted to effectively control and prevent the enlargement of accident risk. A framework for dynamically assessing and predicting evolutionary environmental risk and prediction of hazardous chemicals accidents is presented. Considering the intrinsic complexity, strong mobility and high uncertainty of hazardous chemicals accidents, the challenge of key environmental risk factors analysis and uncertain environmental risk modeling in term of environmental vulnerability, exposure intensity and uncertainty are presented firstly. Then, the need and associated problems of dynamic assessment of environmental risk from the viewpoint of natural and controlled diffusion is proposed. And three-level risk evaluation scheme, namely, unit level, space level and system level is put forward, which depends on different affecting space and evolution mechanism. Furthermore, environmental risk evolution track and prediction model under this framework are discussed. At last, a scenario analysis of liquefied ammonia leakage consequence on environment is simulated based on physical and chemical dispersion model using ALOHA. This study will provide useful decision support and theoretic guidance for environmental control and emergency planning of hazardous chemicals accidents.