文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：城市燃气事故灰色预测模型及其应用

英文题名：Grey system prediction model for city gas accidents and its applications

作者：王敏[1];乔建江[1]

机构：[1]华东理工大学国家环境保护部化工过程环境风险评价与控制重点实验室,资源与环境工程学院,上海200237

年份：2009

卷号：9

期号：5

起止页码：164

中文期刊名：安全与环境学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Safety and Environment

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2008】；CSCD:【CSCD2011_2012】；

基金：上海市重点学科建设项目(B506)

语种：中文

中文关键词：安全工程;预测模型;燃气事故;燃气安全;灰色系统

外文关键词：safety engineering; prediction model; city gas accident; city gas safety; grey system

摘要：城市燃气系统是一个动态的不确定性系统,燃气事故发生具有随机性。运用灰色理论预测城市燃气事故,以上海市市北地区燃气死亡统计数据为原始数据,建立灰色预测模型,同时对模型的可靠性和准确性进行了检验。根据灰色理论模型GM(1,1)建立的城市燃气死亡事故预测模型为(?)^(1)(k+1)=1962e^(0.048k)-1860。模型检验结果表明,关联度r=0.682 5>0.6,通过关联度检验;模型预测精度σ=97.8%达到最好;后验差比C=0.42,P=1,对照灰色预测精度检验等级标准,检验精度达到Ⅱ级,接近Ⅰ级。研究表明,城市燃气死亡事故预测模型还可用于安全工作成效性评价。
This paper aims to present a grey model for predicting city gas accidents so as to improve the efficiency in predicting accidents that would take place due to the use of gas as fuel. As is known, in recent years, with the development of China＇ s city gas industry, it has getting more and more popular to use gas as home fuel consumption source. However, it has also become a headache problem to predict and prevent city gas accidents so as to guarantee the safety and security of the gas users. Seeing this urgent need, the present paper has done a careful analysis of the increasing trend of gas incidents under current conditions, we have studied the random and fuzzy nature of the city gas accidents under the guidance of the grey system theory. In this paper, first of all, we have illustrated the reasons why to choose grey model for predicting city gas. Secondly, a brief introduction has been given to the practical grey system prediction model for city gas accidents developed by us by quoting the mortality statistics of city gas accidents in the north area of Shanghai as the initial data. And, thirdly, the reliability and effectiveness of the model have been checkedin a series of ways. Finally, a discussion has been given on the feasibility of the model in appraising the effectiveness of city gas safety work. The modelobtained can thus be expressed as in a formula of X^（1） （k ＋ 1 ） = 1962e^0.048k - 1860. and its applications studied urging departments concerned to take early preventive measures so as to reduce the accident rate and human casualty and material loss as well. The results of our model appraisement can be shown as follows ： the prediction accuracy a = 97.8 % ; the degree of relationship r = 0.682 5 〉 0.6; for the post-difference-checking, C = 0.42, P = 1. Thus, compared with the testing standards of grey prediction accuracy, the model accuracy is grade Ⅱ , which is very close to grade Ⅰ. Thus, given model developed on the basis of grey system theory proves to be highly reliable and applicable, which can be used as a prediction tool for assessing the assurance of a particular city gas safety work and measures taken correspondingly. Its prediction of casualty toll in the north area of Shanghai is 112 in 2009, 117 in 2010.