文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Scenario analysis of CO2 emissions from China's civil aviation industry through 2030

作者：Zhou, Wenji[1,2];Wang, Tao[1];Yu, Yadong[4];Chen, Dingjiang[1];Zhu, Bing[1,3]

机构：[1]Tsinghua Univ, Dept Chem Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;[2]Petr Co Ltd, China Natl Aviat Fuel Grp, Beijing 100088, Peoples R China;[3]Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;[4]E China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Meilong Rd 130, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China

年份：2016

卷号：175

起止页码：100

外文期刊名：APPLIED ENERGY

收录：;EI(收录号：20161902360899);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000379370800009)】；

语种：英文

外文关键词：Civil aviation; CO2 emissions; Scenario analysis; China

摘要：China's civil aviation industry has undergone a rapid expansion since the early 1980s, which has resulted in drastic increases in aviation fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. The rapid increase in air transport is expected to continue, which poses critical challenges to this industry in terms of carbon emissions reduction. Despite its importance, an analysis of CO2 emissions with the future development of this industry and the impacts of crucial factors is missing from the literature. To bridge this gap, this study conducts scenario analysis of CO2 emissions from this sector through 2030 and assesses the influences from the key influential factors, including the adoption of low carbon jet fuel, the improvement of fuel intensity due to technological advancements of aircraft, and the increase of air traffic demand. The results show that the air traffic demand has the most significant influence on. emissions. The technological improvements in fuel intensity and the adoption of biomass-based fuel appear unlikely to reach the ambitious targets for this industry without a disruptive technological breakthrough. A more comprehensive policy framework, including a carbon tax on jet fuel, R&D support to promote fuel efficiency and a carbon offset scheme etc., is proposed. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.