文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Technology adoption with limited foresight and uncertain technological learning

作者：Chen, Huayi[1];Ma, Tieju[1,2]

机构：[1]E China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Sci, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[2]Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

年份：2014

卷号：239

期号：1

起止页码：266

外文期刊名：EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH

收录：;EI(收录号：20142717893547);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000339148900024)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000339148900024)】；

基金：This research was sponsored by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (71125002) and the Huo Yingdong Foundation (131081).

语种：英文

外文关键词：OR in societal problem analysis; Technology adoption; Limited foresight; Endogenous technological change; Uncertain technological learning

摘要：Most previous optimization models on technology adoption assume perfect foresight over the long term. In reality, decision-makers do not have perfect foresight, and the endogenous driving force of technology adoption is uncertain. With a stylized optimization model, this paper explores the adoption of a new technology, its associated cost dynamics, and technological bifurcations with limited foresight and uncertain technological learning. The study shows that when modeling with limited foresight and technological learning, (1) the longer the length of the decision period, the earlier the adoption of a new technology, and the value of a foresight can be amplified with a high learning rate. However, when the decision period is beyond a certain length, further extending its length has little influence on adopting the new technology; (2) with limited foresight, decisions aiming at minimizing the total cost of each decision period will commonly result in a non-optimal solution from the perspective of the entire decision horizon; and (3) the range of technological bifurcation is much larger than that with perfect foresight, but uncertainty in technological learning tends to reduce the range by removing the early adoption paths of a new technology. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.