文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Marginal Abatement Cost of Carbon Emissions under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

作者：Liu, Na[1];Song, Futie[1]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Business Sch, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China

年份：2021

卷号：13

期号：24

外文期刊名：SUSTAINABILITY

收录：;WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000738458000001)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000738458000001)】；

基金：FundingThis research was funded by the General Project of Shanghai Planning of Philosophy and Social Science (Grant No. 2021BJB002).

语种：英文

外文关键词：EZ climate model; shared socioeconomic pathways; marginal abatement cost; average mitigation rate

摘要：Future emissions scenarios have served as a primary basis for assessing climate change and formulating climate policies. To explore the impact of uncertainty in future emissions scenarios on major outcomes related to climate change, this study examines the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of carbon emissions under the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) subject to the economic optimum and the 1.5 degrees C temperature increase constraint using the Epstein-Zin (EZ) climate model. Taking the "Regional Rivalry" (SSP3) scenario narrative under the economic optimum as a representative case, the expected MACs per ton CO2 equivalent (CO(2)e) emissions in the years 2015, 2030, 2060, 2100, and 2200 are: $102.08, $84.42, $61.19, $10.71, and $0.12, respectively. In parallel, the associated expected average mitigation rates (AMRs) are 0%, 63%, 66%, 81%, and 96%, respectively. In summary, in a world developing towards regional rivalry (SSP3) or fossil-fueled development (SSP5) with high mitigation pressure, the MAC values have approximately doubled, compared with the sustainability (SSP1) and inequality (SSP4) storylines with low mitigation pressure levels. The SSP2 (Middle of the Road) shows a moderate MAC decreasing trend with moderate mitigation pressure. The results provide a carbon price benchmark for policy makers with different attitudes towards the unknown future and can be used to formulate carbon mitigation strategy to respond to specific climate goals.