文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Low-carbon transformation of the regional electric power supply structure in China: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model with resource endowment constraints

作者：Yao, Xilong[1];Lei, Haitao[1];Yang, Lili[2];Shao, Shuai[3,4];Ahmed, Dulal[1];Ismaail, Mohamed Gabir Ahmed[1]

机构：[1]Taiyuan Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Taiyuan 030024, Peoples R China;[2]Shanghai Lixin Univ Accounting & Finance, Sch Int Econ & Trade, Shanghai 201209, Peoples R China;[3]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[4]Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Urban & Reg Sci, Inst Finance & Econ Res, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China

年份：2021

卷号：167

外文期刊名：RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING

收录：;EI(收录号：20204909585106);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000652020200015)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000652020200015)】；

基金：We acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 72074150, 71922015, 71773075, 71773082, and 71533004), the Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China (No. 18ZDA051), the National Top-Notch Young Talent Support Program of China, the Program for the Innovative Talents of Higher Education Institutions of Shanxi (No. 201906), and Shanghai Soft Science Research Program (No. 20692103100).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Electric power supply; Low-carbon transformation; Carbon emissions; Resource endowment; TIMES model; Scenario analysis

摘要：The electric power industry is the main source of carbon emissions in China. The structural transformation of electric power supply plays a key role in the realization of low-carbon development in China. However, the low-carbon transformation of the electric power structure has to consider the differences in resource endowment and technical conditions among regions. To investigate the potential evolution of the regional electric power supply structure, we collect data of provincial resource endowment and technical differences and introduce them into the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model of China's regional electric power sector. In this model, different scenarios for carbon emission reduction in the electric power industry are set, and the optimal regional electric power supply structures under each constraint of carbon emissions are calculated. The results show that the electric power supply structure will change in various regions when the carbon emission reduction target increases from 5% (LC1 scenario) to 15% (LC3 scenario). In 2030, the proportion of thermal power in all regions will decline, especially in western China, where the proportion will decline by 8.47%. However, thermal power will still play a leading role in central China and eastern China, with the proportion more than 50%. Meanwhile, the proportion of the power generation of renewable energy in all regions will increase rapidly in the LC3 scenario, especially in western China, where the proportion will account for 60.72% in 2030, while the proportion will account for 27.26% in eastern China in 2030. Wind power will play an important role in the power supply system in the LC3 scenario, and the proportion of wind power in all regions will exceed that of solar power in 2030, especially in northeast China, where the highest proportion of wind power will come to 30.37%.