文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于个体行为决策的流行病传播过程建模与分析

英文题名：Modeling and Analysis of Coevolution Behavioral Decision-Making and Epidemic Spreading Processes

作者：陈心怡[1];朱婧熹[1];薛栋[1]

机构：[1]华东理工大学能源化工过程智能制造教育部重点实验室,上海200237

年份：2026

卷号：52

期号：2

起止页码：233

中文期刊名：华东理工大学学报(自然科学版)

外文期刊名：Journal of East China University of Science and Technology

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家自然科学基金(62173147)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：流行病传播;位势博弈;耦合传播;非线性系统;多层网络

外文关键词：epidemic spreading;potential game;coupled propagation;nonlinear systems;multiple-layer networks

摘要：在流行病传播过程中,个体行为对传播动力学具有关键调控作用。然而,现有耦合模型常难以充分整合多重现实因素对个体行为决策的影响,或未能充分刻画传播过程中疫情反复等多种复杂状态。基于此,本文提出一种基于双层网络的行为决策与流行病传播双向动态耦合模型。该模型以SIS(Suspective-Infected-Suspective)流行病传播框架为基础,令个体行为通过缩放因子调控流行病的感染率与康复率,同时以博弈论为框架,整合了社会压力、行为实施成本和疾病风险感知等多重现实因素,构建了个体行为决策的动态演化规则,实现了行为决策与传播过程的双向动态耦合。相较于现有双层网络模型,本模型显著降低了流行病传播的稳态水平,提升了流行病根除能力,并能更好地捕捉复杂动力学行为,如传播过程中的振荡现象。针对这一高度非线性耦合系统,本文结合李雅普诺夫稳定性理论与位势博弈方法,对包括无病平衡点(健康态)和地方病平衡点(非健康态)在内的多种平衡点进行理论稳定性分析,并通过数值仿真验证了理论结果的正确性。关键参数敏感性分析揭示了行为因素与流行病传播的相互作用规律,为制定更有效的流行病干预策略提供了重要的理论依据。
Individual behavior critically regulates transmission dynamics during epidemic spread.However,existing coupled models often fail to fully integrate the effects of multiple realistic factors on individual behavioral decision-making or adequately characterize complex states(e.g.,epidemic resurgences)in transmission processes.To address these gaps,this study proposes a bidirectional dynamic coupling model of behavioral decision-making and epidemic spread based on a two-layer network.Built on the SIS(Suspective-Infected-Suspective)epidemic framework,the model employs scaling factors to modulate epidemic infection and recovery rates via individual behaviors.Meanwhile,integrating social pressure,behavior implementation costs,and perceived disease risks within a gametheoretic framework,dynamic evolutionary rules for individual behavioral decisions are established to achieve bidirectional dynamic coupling between behavioral decision-making and transmission processes.Compared with existing two-layer network models,the proposed model significantly reduces the steady-state level of epidemic spread,enhances epidemic eradication capacity,and better captures complex dynamical behaviors(e.g.,oscillations in transmission).For this highly nonlinear coupled system,theoretical stability analysis of multiple equilibria(including disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium)is conducted by combining Lyapunov stability theory with potential game methods,and numerical simulations validate the theoretical findings.Further sensitivity analysis of key parameters reveals the interaction laws between behavioral factors and epidemic spread,providing an important theoretical basis for formulating more effective epidemic intervention strategies.