文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Quantitative risk assessment-driven techno-economic analysis of safety measures in the chemical industry

作者：Zhang, Feilong[1,2]; Wang, Bing[1,2]; Liu, Xin[1]; Wenli, Du[1,2,3]

机构：[1] State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200237, China; [2] Key Laboratory of Smart Manufacturing in Energy Chemical Process, Ministry of Education, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200237, China; [3] Huzhou Institute of Industrial Control Technology, Huzhou, 313099, China

年份：2026

外文期刊名：SSRN

收录：EI(收录号：20260097704)

语种：英文

外文关键词：Accident prevention - Accidents - Bayesian networks - Cost benefit analysis - Cost effectiveness - Economic analysis - Economic and social effects - Risk analysis - Risk assessment - Risk perception

摘要：To prevent and mitigate potential catastrophic accident scenarios in chemical facilities, the selection and configuration of safety measures (SMs) constitute a critical task. This process requires a comprehensive trade-off among multiple factors, such as risk and cost, to enhance the effectiveness of safety measures and the efficiency of resource allocation. Consequently, the accuracy of risk assessment and the rationality of decision-making schemes directly determine the overall safety performance. In this study, an optimization framework for safety measures is proposed by integrating probabilistic assessment, consequence assessment, and cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). A Bayesian network (BN) is employed to evaluate scenario occurrence probabilities, while consequence severity is quantified by combining consequence modeling with a cloud model (CM). The risk reduction of safety measures on both scenario probabilities and consequences are explicitly considered, thereby demonstrating the protective efficacy of both preventive and mitigative measures. On this basis, a cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) is introduced to conduct as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based decision-making. A case study on hexane storage facility is introduced to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. The results indicate that, given the same cost constraints, the proposed approach exhibits a clear advantage in reducing the number of high-risk accident scenarios. ? 2026, The Authors. All rights reserved.