文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Pains or gains: Trade war, trade deficit, and tariff evasion☆

作者：Che, Yi[1];Lin, Donglin[2];Zhang, Yan[2]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai, Peoples R China;[2]Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Econ, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China

年份：2025

卷号：155

外文期刊名：JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

收录：;WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:001469292000001)】；

基金：Yi Che gratefully acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, Grant No. 72073095) , the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and East China University of Science and Technology's Postgraduate Education Teaching Reform Program. Yan Zhang gratefully acknowledges support from Shanghai Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science (2023BJB010) .

语种：英文

外文关键词：Trade war; Trade deficit; Tariff evasion; Demand of entry states

摘要：This paper reveals that the reduction in the US-China trade deficit during the trade war obscured reporting discrepancies in US imports of Chinese products due to tariff evasion. We empirically examine the effect of the US-China trade war on tariff evasion in US imports of Chinese goods and provide direct evidence that market demand of entry states contributes significantly to tariff evasion. Using the input-output table, we find that a one standard deviation increase in local demand causes a 1.312-fold rise in tariff evasion for affected products post-trade war. This effect mainly works through intermediate goods, and its impact grows as importers' tariff liabilities increase. Further analysis considering local social environments shows that voters' attitudes toward trade protection and the development of labor unions play crucial roles in mediating the influence of market demand on tariff evasion.