文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：国际农产品贸易网络的脆弱性研究

英文题名：Research on the Vulnerability of International Agricultural Trade Network

作者：张琳琛[1];王悦[2];董银果[2]

机构：[1]山东理工大学经济学院,淄博255000;[2]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

年份：2023

期号：12

起止页码：130

中文期刊名：农业经济问题

外文期刊名：Issues in Agricultural Economy

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2023_2024】；

基金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“经贸环境不稳背景下农产品贸易网络中的跨国供应风险传导及我国对策研究”(编号:22CJY005)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：贸易网络脆弱性;出口中心度变异指数;国家贸易依赖指数;经贸环境

外文关键词：Trade network vulnerability;Export centrality variation index;Country trade dependence index;Unstable economic and trade environment

摘要：“牵一发而动全身”,正确认识和研判国际农产品贸易网络的脆弱性以及经贸环境突变的冲击性影响,对新发展格局下农产品进口贸易风险防控具有实践指导意义。本文基于社会网络分析方法构建了多维度的贸易网络脆弱性指标,系统性解析国际农产品贸易网络的脆弱性特征,并进一步定量评估中美贸易摩擦、新冠肺炎疫情对农产品贸易网络的冲击影响。主要结论如下:国际农产品贸易网络中高脆弱性行业主要集中在食用肉类、动植物油类、鱼类等水产品、食用水果和坚果以及谷物类产品,其核心出口参与国为以美国为首的欧美国家以及印度尼西亚、中国等少部分发展中经济体。全球国家间农产品贸易依赖网络关联趋于紧密,整体而言呈现出多中心集聚的“多点开花”局面。发展中经济体农产品进口贸易的复合脆弱性程度普遍高于发达经济体,其高脆弱性农产品的进口种类更为广泛且该类产品进口贸易占比更高。2018—2020年,中美贸易摩擦和新冠肺炎疫情显著降低了世界各国高脆弱性农产品进口贸易的复合脆弱性指数,这意味着高脆弱性农产品贸易网络布局从以贸易效率为主导转变为兼顾效率与安全。其中,发展中经济体受经贸环境突变的冲击影响更大,更易陷入农产品跨国供应短缺以及“牺牲效率换安全”的局面。
A correct understanding of the vulnerability of international agricultural trade network and the impact of sudden changes of economic and trade environment on it have practical guiding signif?icance for the prevention and management of risk of agricultural import trade in the background of new development paradigm.Based on the social network analysis method,this paper constructs a multi-di?mensional vulnerability index of trade network,systematically analyzes the vulnerability characteristics of international agricultural trade network,and further quantitatively evaluates the dynamic impact of Si?no-US trade frictions and COVID-19 pandemic on it.Research results show that the highly vulnerable industries in the international agricultural trade network are mainly concentrated in edible meat,animal and vegetable oils,fish and other aquatic products,edible fruits and nuts,and cereal products,whose core export participating countries are mostly European and American countries led by the United States,and some developing economies such as Indonesia and China.The dependence network of agri?cultural products trade among countries in the world is becoming increasingly interconnected,and on the whole,it exhibits a polycentric agglomeration development trend.The degree of composite vulnerability of agricultural import trade in developing economies is generally higher than that in developed econo?mies,which is mainly manifested in that the import types of highly vulnerable agricultural products are more extensive and the import trade proportion of such products is higher.From 2018 to 2020,Sino-US trade frictions and the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced the composite vulnerability index of highly vulnerable agricultural products import trade of countries around the world,which means that the layout of highly vulnerable agricultural product trade network has shifted from being dominated by trade efficiency to balancing efficiency and security.Developing economies are more affected by the deteriora?tion in the economic and trade environment,and are more likely to fall into cross-border supply shorta?ges of agricultural products and the situation of“sacrificing efficiency for safety”.