文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Predicting highway freight transportation networks using radiation models

作者：Zhou, Wei-Xing[1,2,3];Wang, Li[1];Xie, Wen-Jie[1,3];Yan, Wanfeng[3,4]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[2]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[3]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Res Ctr Econophys, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[4]Zhicang Technol, Beijing 100016, Peoples R China

年份：2020

卷号：102

期号：5

外文期刊名：PHYSICAL REVIEW E

收录：;EI(收录号：20204909572973);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000592523200006)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000592523200006)】；

基金：This work was partly supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities. We are grateful to Jun-Chao Ma and Zhi-Qiang Jiang for discussions.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Forecasting - Transportation routes - Truck drivers - Economics - Freight transportation - Truck transportation - Trucks

摘要：Highway freight transportation (HFT) plays an important role in the economic activities. Predicting HFT networks is not only scientifically significant in the understanding of the mechanism governing the formation and dynamics of these networks, but also of practical significance in highway planning and design for policymakers and truck allocation and route planning for logistic companies. In this work we apply parameter-free radiation models to predict the HFT network in mainland China and assess their predictive performance using metrics based on links and fluxes, which can be done in reference to the real directed and weighted HFT network between 338 Chinese cities constructed from about 15.06 million truck transportation records in five months. It is found that the radiation models exhibit relatively high accuracy in predicting links but low accuracy in predicting fluxes on links Similar to gravity models, radiation models also suffer difficulty in predicting long-distance links and the fluxes on them. Nevertheless, the radiation models perform well in reproducing several scaling laws of the HFT network. The adoption of population or gross domestic product in the model has a minor impact on the results, and replacing the geographic distance by the path length taken by most truck drivers does not improve the results.