文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于液氢的氢能产业链的平准化成本分析

英文题名：Levelized Cost Analysis of Hydrogen Energy Chain Based on Liquid Hydrogen

作者：万燕鸣[1];张岩[1];缪慧颖[2];于琨[2];程子睿[2];余亚东[2]

机构：[1]北京国氢中联氢能科技研究院有限公司,北京100007;[2]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

年份：2025

卷号：44

期号：10

起止页码：128

中文期刊名：技术经济

外文期刊名：Journal of Technology Economics

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：中国氢能联盟2022政研项目“液氢储输应用技术及市场研究”(CHA2022RP003)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：液氢;技术经济分析;平准化成本;碳中和

外文关键词：liquid hydrogen;techno-economic analysis;levelized cost;carbon neutrality

摘要：氢能产业发展受规模化的低成本制氢与长距离储运技术制约,而液氢则有望成为氢的低成本高效储运关键技术。本文采用平准化成本模型,测算液氢产业链制氢、液化、储运、加注四大核心环节成本,结合敏感性分析明确各环节成本关键影响因素,并依据地区资源禀赋,以多组典型区域场景,分析不同技术路线下的产业链成本差异。研究结果表明,不同制氢方式成本差距显著,其中焦炉煤气制氢成本较低,可再生能源电解水制氢成本相对较高;液化环节需消耗大量电能,电价与设备成本是制约液化成本的关键,技术进步也对成本降低有显著作用;储运环节呈现“运输距离越长,单位运输成本越低”的特征,液氢槽车更适合长距离运输,人工与车辆购置成本占比突出;加注环节中,相同规模下高压气氢加氢站成本高于液氢加氢站,土地价格与设备成本对加注成本影响较大。最后,本文从制氢、液化、储运、加注各环节提出针对性建议,旨在降低液氢全产业链成本,推动氢能产业发展。
The hydrogen energy industry is constrained by large-scale,low-cost hydrogen production and long-distance storage-transport technologies,while liquid hydrogen is expected to be a key technology for low-cost,efficient hydrogen storage and transportation.A levelized cost model was employed to calculate the costs of the four core processes in the liquid hydrogen industry chain,namely hydrogen production,liquefaction,storage and transportation,and refueling.Combined with sensitivity analysis,it identifies the key factors influencing costs in each process.Furthermore,based on regional resource endowments,the cost differences of the industrial chain was analyzed under different technical routes through multiple sets of typical regional scenarios.Results show significant cost gaps between hydrogen production methods:coke oven gas-based production has lower costs,while renewable energy-powered electrolytic production is relatively higher.Liquefaction consumes substantial electricity,with electricity prices and equipment costs as key constraints,and technological progress aiding cost reduction.For storage and transport process,longer distance lowers unit cost;liquid hydrogen tankers suit long-distance transport,with labor and vehicle purchase costs accounting for a large share.In the refueling process,high-pressure gaseous hydrogen stations cost more than liquid hydrogen ones at the same scale,with land and equipment prices impacting costs significantly.Finally,targeted suggestions for each process are proposed to reduce the overall cost of liquid hydrogen industrial chain and promote the development of the hydrogen energy industry.