文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Link stability analysis of temporal international fertilizer trade networks

作者：Li, Mu-Yao[1];Wang, Li[2,3];Xie, Wen-Jie[1,2];Zhou, Wei-Xing[1,2,4]

机构：[1]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[2]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Res Ctr Econophys, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[3]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Phys, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China;[4]East China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Math, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China

年份：2023

卷号：2023

期号：2

外文期刊名：JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL MECHANICS-THEORY AND EXPERIMENT

收录：;WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000922184600001)】；

基金：AcknowledgmentsThis work was partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72171083), the Shanghai Outstanding Academic Leaders Plan, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

语种：英文

外文关键词：international fertilizer trade; temporal network; link stability; food security

摘要：Fertilizer availability is crucial for global food security, and international fertilizer trade plays a vital role in reallocating fertilizers across multiple economies. However, the stability of international fertilizer trade relationships between economies has not been studied. Using 29 year records of the global fertilizer trade from 1990 to 2018, we construct three temporal networks linked to three primary nutrients (nitrogen N, phosphorus P2O5, and potash K2O). After introducing the link stability indicator to the international fertilizer trade system, which shows a very strong positive correlation with whether the trade will continue in the future, we analyze the factors influencing the stability of the fertilizer trade and provide advice for trading participants to establish highly stable transactions. The supply side has a greater impact on the stability of the fertilizer trade than the demand side. For exporting economies, stable exports need to focus on the counterparty's real demand rather than its economic situation. For importing economies, intermediaries and producers with good economic conditions are stable trading partners, and trade that is geographically closer is always more stable. The methodology used for link stability analysis in this work can be applied to analyzing other directed temporal networks.